ORLANDO, Fla. – Oct. 27, 2017 – Orlando and Tampa are among the large U.S. markets least likely to see home prices fall in the next two years, according to a report from Arch Mortgage Insurance.

The report finds that home prices have only a 2 percent chance of falling in Orlando and Tampa over the next two years, a low-risk level that tied 36 other U.S. markets.

At the other end of the spectrum, Fort Lauderdale and Nashville probably won’t see prices rise over the next two years either, but they still have a noticeably higher risk with a 35 percent chance of that happening. Austin, Texas, has the third-highest probability, at 25 percent, followed by Miami’s 17 percent and West Palm Beach’s11 percent, according to Arch MI.

In explaining Fort Lauderdale’s and Nashville’s rates, Arch MI cites “home prices growing faster than incomes, which is hurting affordability.”

Arch MI estimates that the average probability of home-price declines for America’s 401 largest cities is 4 percent, which it calls “an unusually low number.”

The report suggests that Florida will remain the best economic performer in the South for at least another year, led by tourism, residential and public construction.

The report also found that Orlando is one of America’s 10 hottest housing markets, when looking at the country’s 100 biggest metros. Orlando’s home price index grew 12.5 percent in the past year.

Source: Florida Realtors